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Catholics have clout in vote-rich
states
By JOHN K. WHITE and WILLIAM
V. D'ANTONIO
Since Ronald Reagan won the presidency in 1980, much has been made
of the support Republican presidential candidates received from self-described
"born-again" evangelical voters. When the GOP nominated Reagan in 1980 and 1984
and George Bush in 1988, evangelicals supported them in overwhelming numbers.
When the Republicans chose relatively unpopular candidates as they did with
Bush in 1992 and Bob Dole in 1996, evangelicals continued to give these
candidates substantial majority support.
There is another religious group that has not received nearly as
much news coverage, but has far more clout: Catholics. Catholics constitute
important voting blocs in such voter-rich states as New York, Massachusetts,
New Jersey, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Texas, New Mexico and California.
Several political strategists have attempted to discover the keys to winning
Catholic support, since they realize that in so doing their man (and, some day,
woman) will be well-positioned to enter the White House.
John F. Kennedy's legendary 1960 campaign for the presidency, for
instance, was premised on the idea that Kennedy's fellow believers could be
enticed to return to the Democratic fold after their dalliance with Dwight
Eisenhower. That strategy paid off, as Kennedy won 78 percent of Catholic votes
cast in 1960. Likewise, in 1980 Ronald Reagan won 50 percent of the Catholic
vote (compared to Jimmy Carter's 42 percent) by stressing his strong
anti-communist beliefs -- positions that appealed to ethnic Catholics who had
relatives still entrapped in the captive nations of Eastern Europe and the
Soviet Union.
Reagan's appeal to Catholics was indicative of the popularity the
Republican party had among many Catholics as the Cold War progressed.
Throughout the long struggle with communism, Republicans accused Democrats of
being "soft on communism." The charge, though manifestly unfair, stuck. In the
10 presidential elections held between 1952 and 1988, Republicans won seven of
them. Their victories were premised on pursuing hard-fought arms agreements
with the Soviets while assuring voters that they were hardheaded negotiators at
the bargaining table.
"Peace through strength" became a Republican mantra, and would-be
GOP presidents chanted it over and over again. Democrats protested that they
were not naive when it came to dealing with the various general secretaries of
the Soviet Communist Party. Indeed, John Kennedy out-hawked Richard Nixon in
1960; Lyndon Johnson's appeal to "reason together" provided a stark contrast to
Barry Goldwater's assertion that the Cold War should be won outright -- even if
that meant "lobbing one into the men's room of the Kremlin." But more often
than not, the Democratic responses were ineffectual. After Michael Dukakis lost
to Bush, some Democrats wondered whether their party would ever win the
presidency again.
Cold War coalition
Catholics became an important part of the Republican Cold War
presidential coalition. Long before Ronald Reagan described the Soviet Union as
an "evil empire," Catholics harbored an intense antipathy toward anything that
smacked of communism. In 1930, the pope asked Catholic Americans to pray for
the conversion of Russia. After Franklin Roosevelt signed the Yalta Agreement
in 1945, ceding much of Eastern Europe to the communists, House Republican
Alvin O'Konski, who represented an ethnic district deep in the heart of the
fabled Chicago Democratic machine, expressed the anger many Catholics felt:
"The New Deal betrayed and sold down the river Poland, Yugoslavia, Finland,
Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and other small nations, and the president didn't
even blush when he signed their life and liberty away."
By 1949, 77 percent of all Americans saw communism and
Christianity as incompatible -- including 81 percent of Catholics. During the
1950s Republicans sought to capitalize on the Democrats' perceived softness
toward communism. In 1956 the Republican National Committee established a
Republican Nationalities Division that distributed "I Like Ike" buttons in 10
languages along with 500,000 pamphlets titled "The Republican Policy of
Liberation." Four years later, during the 1960 presidential race, Republicans
tried to neutralize John F. Kennedy's Catholic appeal by stressing their
solidarity with the Catholic-dominated nations of Eastern Europe. American
Nationalities for Nixon-Lodge printed fliers claiming it was during "the
Roosevelt-Truman era when the freedom of millions of people in Europe and Asia
was turned over to communist slavery." That same committee distributed 48,000
foreign-language buttons, held freedom rallies in cities with large Polish
populations (including Buffalo and Chicago), and printed thousands of post
cards depicting the famous Nixon-Khrushchev "kitchen debate." By responding
favorably to such overtly nationalistic appeals, Catholics found an important
psychological release: In denouncing communism they had proved once and for all
that they were truly American.
By 1992 the Cold War was over and with it Republican domination of
the presidency. Bill Clinton won because the country had left the Cold War
behind and was anxious to solve problems lingering at home. George Bush thought
the Cold War's end would win him electoral plaudits: "I hope every mother and
dad out there says, 'Hey, we ought to give this president a little credit for
the fact that our little kids don't worry so much about nuclear war.' Isn't
that important?" It was important, but most voters saw Bush as a Cold War
president without the Cold War. The electorate saw Bush as lacking in vision
and purpose and so chose Clinton.
It's the economy
Like the rest of the country, most Catholics were doleful about
the state of the economy and the collapse of their immigrant forebears' faith
in the American Dream. Clinton won 44 percent of Catholic votes cast in 1992 --
allowing him to win key states where Catholics cast a disproportionate share of
the vote -- including New York, Illinois and California. The religious right
coalition proved to be a limited base of support for the Republicans.
But Clinton's 1992 win did not presage a return by Catholics to
their Democratic roots. During his first two years in office, Clinton handed
Republicans a splendid opportunity to make political hay by proposing a
government-run health care system that proved too complex to understand,
signing the Brady bill and advocating a "don't ask, don't tell" approach to
gays in the military. Republicans devised a simple slogan for these actions:
"God, Guns and Gays." The message resonated with voters, including many
Catholics.
Majorities of those who were Catholics, "born-again," married,
National Rifle Association supporters, parents of children under age 18, weekly
churchgoers and full-time employees sided with the Republicans that year.
Catholic support for House Republican candidates represented a historic shift.
During the heyday of the New Deal, Catholics supported Democratic presidential
and congressional candidates in record numbers. In 1936, the last time a
Democratic president won re-election, Democrats won so many seats in Congress
that there was not enough room for them to sit on their side of the aisle. Over
the years, consistent Catholic support sustained the Democratic congressional
majority. Prominent Catholics rose to high positions in Congress, notably Tip
O'Neill. But in 1994, Catholics cast 51 percent of their votes for Republican
congressional candidates, marking their first significant departure from the
Democratic party since Franklin Roosevelt was laid to rest. Even New York
governor Mario Cuomo, one of the most prominent Catholic politicians, lost to a
Republican challenger in Roosevelt's home state.
Three crucial states
In 1996 Catholics returned to their Democratic roots with 53
percent supporting Bill Clinton (see Table 1). Clinton won sizable Catholic
support in states that now form the heart of the post-Cold War Democratic
presidential coalition. In New York Clinton won 49 percent of the Catholic
vote; in New Jersey, 47 percent; Pennsylvania, 53 percent; Illinois, 54
percent; California, 54 percent. Overall, Catholics constituted one-third of
Clinton's total vote. This is important since Clinton's twin victories depended
on support from three crucial states where Catholics constitute an important
share of the vote: New York (33 electoral votes), California (54 electoral
votes) and Illinois (22 electoral votes). These three states are anchors for
Democratic victories in the Northeast, Midwest and West. Just as significant,
53 percent of Catholics cast a Democratic ballot in the 435 congressional
races, compared to 45 percent who picked a Republican. The actions of the 104th
Congress, especially the two shutdowns of the federal government and the
attacks on Medicare and Medicaid, earned a sharp rebuke from Catholics: 54
percent disapproved of the Republican-controlled Congress; just 42 percent
approved.
But Clinton's Catholic coalition differed markedly from that
assembled by Franklin Roosevelt. While economic issues are important to
Catholics (as they are to nearly everyone else), the economy is no longer a
demarcation line for Catholics. Census data show that, unlike the situation in
the 1930s, there is very little difference in income and education levels
attained by white Catholics and white Protestants. A historic dividing line has
been erased. By the 1990s, Gallup and NORC surveys were reporting that
Catholics were as likely as Protestants to have attended and graduated from
college and slightly more likely to enjoy above average income. Moreover, these
studies also reported that more than 90 percent of Protestants said they would
vote for a Catholic president.
Not surprisingly, then, since 1968 Catholics have come to look
like the rest of the country when the presidential votes were counted. In 1972,
for example, 54 percent of Catholics voted for John Kennedy's 1960 opponent,
Quaker Richard Nixon. Similarly, in 1984 and '88 Catholics gave Ronald Reagan
and George Bush 54 and 52 percent of their votes respectively.
Back to the fold
But many Catholic Democrats returned to the fold in 1996. This was
especially true of Hispanic Catholics, who gave the Clinton-Gore ticket 81
percent of their votes -- nearly equaling the 84 percent support the Democratic
ticket received from blacks. Many Hispanics were motivated to cast a Clinton
ballot by the Republican party's tough anti-illegal immigrant stance, which
they found to be an anathema. In 1994 California voters agreed with the
Republicans and passed Proposition 187, which banned all state spending on
illegal immigrants and required police to report suspected illegal aliens to
the California Department of Justice. The measure proved popular, winning 59
percent support at the polls. But whereas whites gave it 64 percent backing, 69
percent of Hispanics (most of them Catholic) disapproved. Still, the
Republican-controlled 104th Congress read the returns, passing a tough
anti-immigrant law that doubled the number of U.S. Border Patrol agents to
10,000 and speeded up deportation of immigrants who used false documents. Some
Republican representatives proposed even more punitive measures, including
preventing the states from providing free public education to children of
illegal immigrants, deporting legal immigrants who used more than 12 months of
public assistance in a seven-year period and barring both illegal and legal
immigrants who were HIV-positive or had AIDS from enrolling in federally
financed treatment programs.
Alfredo Alvarez, a legal immigrant from Honduras, became a
naturalized citizen because of such GOP-led hostility: "I love this country but
I feel unwanted. I feel like unless I am a true American, the government could
one day knock on my door and tell me, 'Alfredo, go back to Honduras.' " The
result was a Catholic Hispanic backlash: Clinton's support among this
strategically placed Catholic population rose 11 percent from his 1992 posting.
Even staunchly pro-Republican Cubans cast aside their hatred of communism and
Fidel Castro to give Clinton 40 percent of their votes, support that proved
crucial in Clinton's capture of Florida.
First-time voter Jesse Henriquez, a 48-year-old immigrant from El
Salvador, expressed the sentiments of many Catholic Hispanics: "The only way we
can tell the people that we are working hard and that Latinos should not be
blamed for all the country's problems is to register and vote. Little by
little, we are telling people, 'No more Proposition 187s.' " As the Jesse
Henriquezes proved in 1996, Republican backing for Proposition 187 paid a
short-term dividend but was a long-term loser.
Changed issue mix
Equally important is the changed issue mix that controls
presidential elections during the post-Cold War era. During the Cold War,
Republicans won by sitting on a three-legged stool whose supports were the
economy, foreign policy and defense. In 1992 that stool collapsed and in 1996
it was replaced by what the Clinton White House called M2E2 -- a shorthand
formula standing for Medicare, Medicaid, education and the environment. Clinton
stressed these issues, and as Table 2 indicates they were a powerful inducement
to Catholics.
Exit polls conducted by Voters News and Surveys showed the economy
and jobs mattered most to Catholics, followed by Medicare/Social Security,
education, taxes and the deficit. Only the last two issues worked for Dole --
of those Catholics who said taxes were most important, Dole won 73 percent of
their votes; likewise, of those who mentioned the deficit, 54 percent backed
Dole. Just 4 percent named foreign policy as an important factor in their
voting decision, and of this minuscule number, 48 percent backed Dole and 45
percent supported Clinton.
This new issues mix has transformed the gender gap into a gender
canyon. The gender gap, which first became evident in Ronald Reagan's 1980 win,
has become an enduring feature of contemporary American politics. Clinton had a
16 point lead among all women in 1996, winning 54 percent of their ballots,
while Dole scored better with men, capturing 44 percent of their votes. The
gender gap was even greater among Catholics: Dole won 46 percent support from
white Catholic men to Clinton's 41 percent. But with extraordinary support from
Hispanic and Black Catholic men, Clinton's overall support from Catholic men
was 47 percent to 41 percent for Dole.
A similar pattern held for women. Among white Catholic women,
Clinton got 54 percent of their votes to Dole's 37 percent -- a gender canyon
of 17 points. When the black and Hispanic women's votes were included,
Clinton's support among Catholic women jumped to a 25 point margin (59 percent
to 34 percent). New Jersey Republican representative Marge Roukema observed
that unless Republicans addressed the M2E2 equation they would be "a long time
coming back."
The demographic profile also shows that Clinton won a majority of
Catholics in all age categories, but was particularly strong with the 18-29 (57
percent to 30 percent for Dole) and the 65 and older (53 percent to 39 percent)
age groups. Even more striking was how well Clinton did with first-time
Catholic voters, whipping Dole 65 percent to 32 percent. Again, Clinton ran
well ahead of Dole among Catholics earning under $50,000 a year and among
Catholics with less than a college degree. Among college graduates and
postgraduates, Clinton and Dole ran neck and neck.
The Catholic vote also reveals a difference in lifestyles and
voting. Working Catholic women were especially supportive of Clinton: Sixty
percent backed Clinton while 32 percent supported Dole. But those Catholic
women who were not in the paid labor force were less supportive: Fifty percent
voted for the president; forty percent backed his Republican challenger.
Moreover, there is a "marriage gap" among Catholics. Among those Catholics who
were married (64 percent), the race was relatively close: Forty-eight percent
voted for Clinton; forty-two percent were for Dole. But among Catholic singles
(36 percent) it was no contest: Fifty-nine percent backed Clinton; thirty
percent voted for Dole. Not surprisingly, Hillary Rodham Clinton was a
lightning rod among Catholic voters: Just 50 percent of all Catholics had a
favorable opinion of the first lady; 47 percent held a negative view. Clinton
Catholics liked his spouse, with 83 percent expressing support. Just 13 percent
of Dole Catholics had a positive reaction to the first lady.
The abortion question
Abortion also proved to be a demarcation line in voting. Of those
who believed that abortion should be "always legal" or "mostly legal," 68
percent and 55 percent respectively voted for Clinton. But among those who
believed abortion should be "mostly illegal" or "always illegal," Dole won the
most votes: 48 percent and 57 percent respectively. Republicans have staked
much on the abortion issue, with some seeing it as a replacement for
anti-communism in its appeal to Catholics. But the exit polls suggest the issue
is a nonstarter: Fifty-nine percent of all Catholics believe abortion should be
"always legal" or "mostly legal"; thirty-seven percent said it should be
"mostly illegal" or "always illegal." A 1992 Gallup survey reported that 13
percent of all Catholics and 22 percent of Catholics who go to Mass weekly said
abortion should be illegal in all circumstances. Thus, when candidate Clinton
proclaimed that abortion should be "safe, legal and rare," he was expressing
the sentiments of a majority of Catholics on this sensitive issue.
In summary, the portrait of the Catholic voter that emerges from
the 1996 elections suggests an interesting mix of demographic and social
factors: women, Hispanics, Blacks, young and first-time voters, Catholics with
working-class and middle-class backgrounds (incomes under $50,000 and less than
a four-year college degree), all gave Clinton very sizable winning margins over
candidate Dole, ranging between 53 percent and 81 percent. College graduates
and Catholics with higher incomes split their support between Clinton and
Dole.
When we look to the immediate future, we can expect the following:
the black vote (at 4 percent of the Catholic total) to remain in the high 70s
for the Democrats; Hispanics, now at 11 percent of the Catholic total, are sure
to become a much larger percent of the Catholic total, as they come of age and
as migration from Latin America continues. The Republican anti-immigration
strategy has assured the Democrats of continued strong support from the
Hispanics, barring some unforeseen misadventure. And the Democrats seem to have
cornered the values issues that attract women, minorities, working- and
middle-class citizens: Medicare and Medicaid, education and the
environment.
The M2E2 issues that Clinton has embraced, are traditional
Democratic issues. But is there not also something Catholic about them?
Catholics have long shared with Jews a special concern for community, for the
commonweal. And if one looks closely at the social issues that the bishops have
spoken to in their economy and peace pastorals in the 1980s, and more recently,
in their opposition to the Republican-led attacks on M2E2, one can find in the
1996 elections evidence that Catholics, to the degree they feel economically
secure, are willing to shoulder social responsibilities as they enjoy more and
more personal achievement in income, education and occupation.
Social responsibilities
The 1996 elections suggest that issues like M2E2, along with
family leave and other issues that focus on using government to carry out
social responsibilities, may have more appeal to the electorate than the agenda
being pushed by the conservative Christian Coalition, which emphasizes using
government to control individual behavior. To the extent that the issues that
dominated the campaign reflected differing religious perspectives, we close
with the observation that Catholics constituted 29 percent of the total casting
votes, while those who identified themselves as part of the conservative
religious right constituted only 17 percent of the voting electorate in 1996.
Dole won 65 percent of the vote of the religious right, but only 37 percent of
the Catholic vote. And while the religious right constituted 27 percent of
Dole's vote total, the Catholic vote constituted 32 percent of Clinton's
winning total. There is much here to ponder as we head toward that bridge that
will lead us into the 21st century.
Table 1: The Shape of the Catholic Vote,
1996 (in percentages) |
Demographic Category |
All Catholics |
Clinton Catholics |
Dole Catholics |
Perot Catholics |
All
Catholics |
|
53 |
37 |
9 |
Sex Male Female |
49 51 |
47 59 |
41 34 |
10 7 |
White Men Women |
49 51 |
41 54 |
46 37 |
12 8 |
Race White Black Hispanic |
81 4 11 |
48 72 81 |
41 23 14 |
10 5 2 |
Age 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ |
19 34 25 22
|
57 52 52 52
|
30 39 39 39
|
10 8 9 8
|
First time
voters |
9 |
61 |
32 |
6 |
Income Less than
15k 15-30k 30-50k 50-75k 75-100k over 100k |
9 27 27 22 10 10 |
66 57 55 51 45 39 |
20 31 34 42 46 55 |
12 11 10 6 8 5 |
Party
ID Democrat Republican Independent or
other |
44 31 25 |
84 16 44 |
10 77 34 |
5 6 18 |
1992
Vote Clinton Bush Perot |
45 31 14 |
84 19 27 |
11 76 41 |
4 4 32 |
Ideology Liberal Moderate Conservative |
21 51 29 |
77 57 26 |
13 32 66 |
7 10 8 |
Education No high school High
school graduate Some college College graduate Postgraduate |
6 26 27 26 16 |
72 61 50 44 48 |
21 27 38 45 47 |
7 11 10 9 4 |
-- Source: Voters
News and Surveys, exit poll, Nov. 5, 1996 |
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National Catholic Reporter, February 14,
1997
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